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Anthropic aims to raise up to $64.35 billion in IPO, commitments raise questions

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According to an updated filing with the SEC, Anthropic plans to sell 825 million shares for $70 to $78 each. That implies a valuation of around $1.3 trillion to $1.45 trillion, and at the top of the range, the offering would raise up to $64.35 billion for the company.

The shares will trade on Nasdaq under the ticker $ANT.

Alongside the IPO, Anthropic will raise another $26 billion from strategic partners, including $NVDA, $MSFT, $GOOG, $TSM, $AVGO, $AMD and $MU. These companies are buying Class N shares without voting rights at the IPO price and are not subject to the standard six-month lock-up. The same goes for $SPCX, so I'll quickly explain what that means here. If you know what it means, you can keep reading after the parentheses:

(A lock-up is a period after an IPO during which existing shareholders are not allowed to sell their shares. It mainly applies to founders, employees and investors who already held shares before the company went public. It usually lasts 180 days, or about six months.

The idea is to prevent a large supply of shares from insiders flooding the market as soon as trading begins, which would push the price down. Investors therefore often watch for the day the lock-up expires. Some insiders may then start selling, and shares often weaken around that date.)

In the first 9 months of the year, Anthropic reported revenue of $33.2 billion. At the same time, it has spending commitments of $895.4 billion, mainly for computing capacity and infrastructure. So the question of where the company will get the money is still an important one.

This is reflected to some extent, because if you remember the end of summer, there was speculation about a valuation of up to $2 trillion. In the end, the valuation is lower.

Will you buy the shares in the IPO?

A community member's personal view, not investment advice. Community Guidelines

PW

I personally won't participate in the IPO, though I'll continue to follow it. 👍 And why? This IPO is big and “cool” enough to be able to drain and redirect a significant portion of investors' free (and already invested) cash toward ANT, especially in the short term around the listing and within the AI/tech sector. A primary offering always directly draws in fresh cash.

But what will interest me most personally is the secondary effect, or capital rotation. Whether the IPO can actually “drain” capital (in this case, redirect capital from other positions). I think capital rotation could create interesting buying opportunities in other stocks. That's because concentrated demand for one stock can create short-term pressure on other stocks in the same thematic basket. We'll see. Historically, large IPOs (even smaller than this one) have often caused temporary rotation within the sector.

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